Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
